Friday, March 28, 2025

Closing Markets: Corn +3.25 old & -1.25 new.
Beans +6.25 old & +8.50 new. Wheat -3.75.

Market Recap:

Good afternoon. Happy Friday! CBOT markets finished the week mixed Friday on a somewhat surprising increase in volume. A steady climb in bean oil futures from mid-morning on was able to pull soybeans higher for the second consecutive day, while spot corn dropped to test the March 4th low early this morning before finally being able to break free from the wheat market a bit to close nearly 10 cents away from here.

CK ended the week at 4.53 and 1/4, up 3 and 1/4. CN was up 2 cents at 4.60. Outside days higher for both. SK closed at 10.23, up 6 and 1/4. SN was up 6 and 3/4 at 10.37 and 1/4. WK finished at 5.28 and 1/4, down 3 and 3/4. New contract lows for WK at 5.17 and 1/2. Products were mixed, May soybean meal closed at 293.50, down $1.0/ton, and May soybean oil closed at 45.16, up 89 points. Also new contract lows in May meal at 289.70, while bean oil was up nearly 2.5 full cents/lb over the last two days. Livestock markets ended the week on a lower note, April live cattle closed at 208.82, down 72 cents, April feeders were down 62 cents at 286.92, and April hogs closed at 86.70, down 32 cents. Outside markets are mostly in the red also, crude oil futures are down 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 800 points, and the US$ index is down 30 points. The S&P500 is down 120 points, and the NASDAQ is down 540 points. Gold futures are up about $20/oz and made new contract highs early in the overnight session last night. Outside day lower for crude oil.

Spreads were mixed to wrap up the week, corn spreads were unchanged to 4 and 3/4 cents higher, and soybean spreads were down 2 and 1/4 to up 6 and 3/4. CK/CN ended the week at -6 and 3/4, up a penny and 1/4, and SK/SN finished the week at -14 and 1/4, down a half cent.

For the week: May corn was down 11 cents; July corn was down 11 and 1/2 cents; May soybeans were up 13 and 1/4 cents; July soybeans were up 15 and 3/4 cents; May Chicago wheat was down 30 cents; May soybean meal was down $6.80/ton; and May soybean oil was up 3.15 cents/lb.

Though activity finally picked up to end the week, it remains that most all the focus in the ag space continues to be on next week's acreage report and the ensuing tariff announcements after that. As it pertains to the acreage report, trends over the past 20 years show an equal chance of the corn acreage number coming in above or below the average trade guess, as both outcomes have happened 10 of the last 20 years. Soybeans have a bit more of a trend, as the March figure has been below the average trade guess going into the report in 14 of the last 20 years, with it being larger in just 6 years. Looking further down the road, there is a similar lack of trend in corn when it comes to the USDA's final acreage number vs the March estimate, as 11 of the last 20 years have seen a final figure larger than the March estimate, while 9 years saw a smaller final number; again similarly for soybeans, the final acreage number in 8 of the last 20 years was above the March estimate, while being below on the other 12 years.

As far as next week's tariffs go, President Trump spoke by telephone with newly appointed Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney earlier this morning, with the latter indicating the discussions were "productive"; Carney added in his statement though that Canada was prepared to announce retaliatory tariffs immediately on April 2nd should Trump go forward with his proposed measures, though no details were given on what that list would include or what the tariff rate on goods would be. Trump also mentioned regarding the call that he looks forward to meeting in-person with Carney after the elections on April 28th. Otherwise, there were little new comments from Trump or the US side throughout the day on Friday on the overall situation, with the month-long negotiating period seemingly quietly coming to an end. The unknown/anxiety, along with inflationary fears and general money flow, is what produced the selling in the equity markets today, with there being a very evident risk-off feel throughout the afternoon hours.

From a price/chart standpoint, that the corn market was able to test the early month low and hold and reverse off it was encouraging for the bull camp, with this being the 'line in the sand' for next week. Should we see a larger than expected acreage number or a jump in stocks that would push values below what now looks like a double bottom, that would open the door to a run at the fall low in the low 4.20's area, and then the contract lows just below here. Following today's mostly positive close, any sort of bullish news on Monday could quickly lead to a return to the 4.70 area, which encompasses the 100-day moving average and 38% retracement of late Feb/early March slide. In the case of soybeans, the even $10 level will remain key downside support going into next week, while upside targets will be the 200-day moving average at 10.49 and 3/4 and then the February high at 10.92 and 1/2.

The other ongoing theme that will run into next week and beyond is weather, which is grabbing more and more attention in the US seemingly by the day. Yesterday's weekly drought monitor update had some confusion surrounding it due to technical errors, but updated maps show the north-central part of the US, which generally encompasses the Corn Belt, holding relatively steady week over week in the D1-D4 category at 50.56%; this compares to 53.8% the week prior and 36.99% on the same date last year. Forecasts though are indicating further improvement is expected here over the next few weeks, with nearly all the states in this are expected to see precip between now and next Friday. The heaviest totals look to be south of the main part of the Corn Belt, but precip of 1-3" is still seen through northern areas of South Dakota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois and then further into the east. Beyond here, week two precip maps through the day today shifted eastern US wetness just a little further south than was seen previously but still shows a good chunk of the eastern US in an above average moisture pattern through the week of April 5th - 11th.

Five-day forecasts for South America have continued to shift some of the heavier rains for Argentina further to the east, with western areas looking to be a little short-changed from the coming systems. Southern Brazil is expected to see decent rainfall, but the main growing areas further to the north will see lesser/more spotty totals, with the northeast looking to be mostly dry. Extended forecasts into the mid-weeks of April show dryness across most of Argentina and are also beginning to take a drier shift for a lot of Brazil, which will be of concern should the same solution continue to be produced through the end of next week. Temperature forecasts remain little changed and continue to offer below normal air temps for Argentina, while conditions in Brazil will remain on the warm side for at least the next week.


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Have a good weekend!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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