Tuesday, January 21, 2025
Morning Markets: Corn +3.75 old & +0 new.
Beans +21.50 old & +9 new. Wheat +9.75.

MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning! Ag markets at the CBOT this morning are mostly higher to start the week, led to the upside by the soy complex. Beans and meal are both up a similar 1.5-2%, and are also a good bit off the highs that were scored around 4am central time this morning, while the grains are both marginally higher. Night one of Trump's second Presidential term did not yield any new official tariffs on China, which has lifted ag markets in the overnight session. Talk of such measures likely keeps the space on edge through the remainder of the month though, with nobody wanting to be caught off-guard for an overnight social media post that could significantly move values. Corn futures this morning are trading around 3 cents higher, soybean futures are 10-20 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 6-8 cents higher; new highs for the move again in corn, while soybeans and wheat had a gap-higher start last night. Products are mostly higher, soybean meal is up around $4/ton, and soybean oil is trading either side of unchanged. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down around $1.80/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 175 points, and the US$ index is down 65 points. The S&P500 is up 20 points and the NASDAQ is up 100 points. Of note, the $ index has not traded below the lows made on Friday.

Crude Oil is down $1.88 at $76.00
US Dollar is down at $108.674
Global Equities: Japan +0.1%, China +0.9%, and Europe -0.3%
Dow futures is up 180 points at 43,875
Malaysian Palm Oil: +0.0%
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.0% and Wheat +0.5%

WEATHER:
• Frigid temps across most of the US remain the most prominent weather feature coming out of the weekend to start the new week; the worst of the cold looks to pass today for most of the Midwest, though areas along the Gulf Coast and up the East Coast will continue to see temps that are some 20-30 degrees F below normal. 5-10 day outlooks are then in fair agreement on slightly below average temps for the eastern and western half of the country, while the mid-section is expected to see a slight warm up.
• Along with the cool temps, areas along the Gulf Coast and into GA/SC are expected to see snowfall of up to 4" through the day today and into tomorrow; the northern Plains and areas around the Great Lakes are also expected to see light snows this week, while the rest of the country is largely expected to be on the dry side. Week-two outlooks, which get into the first week of February, are in fair agreement on above average precip chances for the southeast and also the PNW, while the rest of the country is expected to see slightly below average precip.
• In South America, satellite data over the last 72 hours shows good rains of 0.5-2" through parts of central and eastern Argentina, but southern Brazil was largely short-changed and only picked up scattered/trace amounts. Northern and northwest Brazil saw similar rainfall totals to central Argentina, while the eastern part of Brazil was also largely dry.
• Forecasts for the rest of this week show good rain chances in northern/northwest Argentina, while central and southern parts of the country are expected to be mostly dry over the next 5 days. Southern/south central Brazil is also expected to see rain chances, with exact amounts/locations needing to be monitored into the weekend. Northern Brazil looks to remain wet.

OTHER HEADLINES:
• Last week's commitment of trader's report showed as of Tuesday, January 14th, managed money traders were net-long 292,228 contracts of corn (+38,883 on the week), net-long 34,833 contracts of soybeans (+63,446), and net-short 94,393 contracts of wheat (-5,755); as we mentioned on Friday, this is the first time the funds have been net-long soybeans since December of 2023.
• In soy products, managed money traders were sellers of 4,896 contracts of soybean meal (now net-short 63,520 contracts), and were buyers of 39,648 contracts of soybean oil (now net-long 7,650 contracts); this was the largest week of buying by the funds in bean oil since the beginning of July, when they bought over 40k contracts in back-to-back weeks.
• As mentioned at the top, the latest news reports regarding Trump's tariffs suggest a delay in an immediate implementation of measures on China, while 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico are expected to start February 1 according to Trump and his team; this is obviously an ongoing topic, and is subject to change nearly by the hour.
• Other news from day one of Trump's second term included promises to 'unleash American energy development' and a revocation of measures that had effectively blocked drilling in most US coastal waters; this has crude oil futures sharply lower this morning. Other measures of note included a halt of the TikTok ban that was brought about over the weekend, a roll back of AI regulations, and orders to exit both the Paris climate accord and the World Health Organization, amongst other things.
• Chinese customs data for the month of December showed soybean imports in the month at 7.94 mmt's, which was down nearly 20% from December 2023, but up more than 10% from November's figure. Corn imports at 340k mt's were down 93% from last year, but up 13% from last month.
• According to South American ag firm AgRural, soybean harvest in Brazil as of January 16th has reached 1.7% complete, which compares to 6% last year and is the slowest pace to-date since the 20/21 season. Winter corn planting in the center-south region is estimated at 0.3% complete compared to 4.9% last year.
• Ukraine's Ag Ministry on Monday said that grain and soybean exports in the current marketing year have reached 24.19 mmt's, which is roughly 2 mmt's more than was exported in the same period last year; the total includes 10.33 mmt's of wheat and 1.42 mmt's of corn, with no specific data given for soybeans.
• US federally inspected pork production in the week ending January 18th was seen at 572 mil lbs, which was up 4% from last week and up just 0.3% from last year; beef production for the week was seen at 527 mil lbs, up 3% from last week and up 3.7% from last year. YTD pork production to start the year is down 8.7% from last year, while beef production is down 9.7%.

EXPORT NEWS:
• N/A

Have a good day!

Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com ... See MoreSee Less