Thursday, December 19, 2024
Closing Markets: Corn +3.50. Beans +11.25. Wheat -8.25.

Monday, December 23rd TFG will host Christmas Open House from 11am-1pm in Cisco, Emery, Pierson, Seymour, and Tabor

Grain Marketing Program signups are due by 12/31/24. Contact your originator with any questions or if interested in signing up!

Market Recap:

Good afternoon. Markets were again mixed on Thursday at the CBOT as corn and soybeans were able to get back part of yesterday's losses, while the wheat market again closed lower for now the sixth straight session. New contract lows were scored in beans and wheat overnight last night, but in the case of beans and also corn, that markets spent the majority of the day session trading near the day's highs was a positive development for the bulls. Key now will be whether selling returns on Friday or if markets can keep bouncing back closer to unchanged for the week.

CH closed Thursday at 4.40 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents. CK was up 2 1/2 at 4.46 1/4. SF finished at 9.63, up 11 and 1/4. SH closed at 9.66 1/2, up 13 1/4. WH was down 8 1/4 at 5.33. Products were higher, January soybean meal closed at 284.10, up $4.60/ton, and January soybean oil closed at 40.01, up 46 points. New contract lows in meal and new lows for the move in oil. Livestock markets were mostly lower, February live cattle closed at 186.55, down $1.77, January feeders closed at 254.47, down $2.52, and February hogs closed at 83.62, down 27 cents. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 200 points, and the US$ index is up 35 points. The S&P500 is up 20 points and the NASDAQ is down 20 points. New contract highs again for the $ index, while all three of the major stock index futures had inside trading days.

Spreads finished Thursday mixed, corn spreads were unchanged to a penny and 3/4 higher, and soybean spreads were down 2 and 1/4 to up 2 and 1/4. CH/CK closed at -5 1/2, up a penny, and SF/SH closed at -3 1/2, down 2 cents. Outside day lower for SF/SH after making new highs for the move this morning at 1/4 of a cent.

Private exporters this morning again reported a daily sales flash for the second consecutive session. They announced sales of 227,200 mt's of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown unknown destinations; of the total, 152,200 mt's is for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year and 75,000 mt's is for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year. This is the first soybean sales flash for the 2025/26 marketing year.
Demand news on Thursday also included the regular weekly export sales report for the week ending December 12th, which came in within trade expectations and above last week, but otherwise was nothing spectacular. Corn sales for the week were seen at 1.175 mmt's; featured buyers for the week were Mexico (395,500 mt's), Japan (273,100 mt's), and Colombia (204,800 mt's). Unknown destinations canceled/rolled/assigned out 192,100 mt's. Soybean sales were seen at 1.424 mmt's; featured buyer for the week was China, who took 648,200 mt's, while unknown destinations were buyers of 374,500 mt's. And lastly, wheat sales were seen at 458k mt's; featured buyers for the week were the Philippines (83k mt's), Venezuela (80,800 mt's), and Japan (59,300 mt's). Current corn sales pace is up 29% from last year, soybean pace is up 10% from last year, and wheat pace is up 9% from last year. Soybean oil sales, after being hot in recent weeks, fell back towards the lower end of trade expectations this week at just 6k tons.

"Uncertain" is the word that could be best used to describe the ongoing US political situation, as the government's funding bill that was announced by House Speaker Mike Johnson on Tuesday received 24 hours of backlash yesterday and was subsequently derailed following opposition from President-elect Trump yesterday evening. The Republican leader's main gripe was that the current debt ceiling be raised or removed altogether, a move that Democratic lawmakers are calling "ridiculous." GOP lawmakers were meeting on Thursday in a last ditch effort to find a path forward, but sources familiar at this point see it fairly likely that at least a partial government shutdown occurs on Saturday as the Democrats have been unwilling to budge. Were a shutdown to occur, it will likely not last beyond January 20th as the Republicans will then have control of both chambers of congress. "Let's reset January 20th. It's not the scary shutdown the lying media tells you it is," said Republican Representative Nancy Mace on social media. As it pertains to ag, the bill contains $10 billion in farm aid which is at least in part expected to offset some of the economic hardships likely to be caused by the resumption of Trump's trade war. Said Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance on social media, "Republicans want to support our farmers, pay for disaster relief, and set our country up for success in 2025. The only way to do that is with a temporary funding bill WITHOUT DEMOCRAT GIVEAWAYS combined with an increase in the debt ceiling. Anything else is a betrayal of our country."

Forecasts have been in good agreement all week for the next couple days and through the weekend, with little change noted again at mid-day on Thursday. Snows will continue falling through the upper Midwest and into the northeast through the day tomorrow and into Saturday, while a rain/snow mix returns to the PNW on Saturday also. Otherwise, the rest of the country sees largely dry conditions through the weekend and into the first part of next week, before rains return to the mid-south and southern Midwest next Tuesday/Wednesday. Extended week-two guidance saw no change at mid-day, with nearly all of the country still forecast to see warm and wet conditions into the opening days of 2025; the southwest sees the best chance at dryness, but this will largely be confined to areas south of the border in Mexico.
The forecast for Brazil remains mostly unchanged again, with average to above average precip seen for most all of the country's growing regions in the next two weeks. Argentina shifted drier over the short-term but wetter in the two week period, as confidence in the forecast here remains low. Like we mentioned yesterday, models have been underperforming on Argentine rainfall all season and recency bias would lead one to believe that this trend likely continues. Amid a lack of heat though, crop stress remains low in the short-term regardless of moisture.


Have a good night!

Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com ... See MoreSee Less