Tuesday, February 3, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: +2.75 old & +2 new.
Beans: +5.50 old & +4 new. Wheat: +1.


Good evening!

Market Recap-
Row crop markets closed higher at the CBOT on Tuesday while the product markets were mixed on what ended up being a rather big headline day with the US Treasury's announcement of the 45Z clean fuel tax credit program. On a similar but separate note, the EPA also announced on Tuesday that it would issue long-awaited guidance on RVOs and related small refiner exemptions, which we see as being far more impactful to soybean oil fundamentals than today's not-yet-finalized 45Z announcement.

Corn Summary-
Corn futures closed higher on Tuesday, led higher mostly by buying in the energy markets of bean oil and crude oil and as headlines regarding 45Z dominated most of the chatter throughout the ag space. As it pertains to the matter, aside from updates to the credit received for SAF (sustainable aviation fuel), we see the only real news relating to corn today as the fact the GREET model has still not been finalized, which determines carbon scoring for corn that would be used for ethanol. Part of the GREET model when it was introduced originally included things like specific fertilizer applications and tillage practices to determine carbon scores, which many producers were not in favor of. The bottom line is that while a step in the right direction and better than previous legislation, today's announcement does little to materially alter overarching supply and demand fundamentals, which are still being mostly dominated by the record corn crop produced this year.

Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures were higher as well on Tuesday, but took a backseat to the bean oil market, where an evening rally started by a lower stocks reading in yesterday's update was built on when 45Z announcements were made at mid-morning. Like we talked about with corn, the announcement is a step in the right direction, but at the end of the day has little impact on overall fundamentals when compared to the pending RVO legislation that is expected sometime between now and March. Remember, early yield results in Brazil have an already massive crop seemingly getting bigger, and this will be a limiting factor on price in the short term regardless of what the US government mandates for demand. As we've talked about for weeks, it is a supply-based rally on weather issues somewhere that likely has legs, not one based on demand adjustments.

Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures traded either side of unchanged throughout most of the day on Tuesday before settling just marginally higher on what was a quieter day in the space. With all the attention being paid to 45Z, wheat fundamentals got pushed to the back burner, which led to small ranging trade throughout all three classes.

Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $1.20+/bbl.

Weather Updates-
Storms are working across the southeast and the eastern part of the US this afternoon and look to continue into this evening, with models remaining in good agreement on this system being the first of two that are expected to impact the eastern half of the US this week. The second will have a more northern lean, and looks to impact more of the Great Lakes region and the northeast Friday into Saturday. The rest of the Midwest likely stays on the drier side the rest of the week and into the weekend before better rain chances look to return by the middle of the following week.
Extended range forecasts into mid-month are like prior runs, and continue to show improving moisture outlooks for a lot of the US. The models aren't in perfect agreement, but are similar enough and make sense given likely shifts in upper atmospheric pressure that will bring about a bit of a pattern change in comparison to the last few weeks. This change also includes a temperature shift, as warmer air that has been stuck in the western US is able to work east in the next couple weeks, leading to a period of warmth in the eastern US and cooler conditions in the west.
Models have continued to trend wetter through Argentina over the past couple days, and now see multiple rounds of storms/showers for the heart of the country's ag regions between now and this time next week. This afternoon's model runs also show the potential for slightly drier conditions to emerge across Brazil beyond the next 10-15 days, which if accurate, should aid in the advancement of soybean harvest. Heat doesn't look to be an issue for either region over the next week, as daytime highs will be near average for most everywhere but the far southern part of Brazil.



Enjoy it!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
Image ... See MoreSee Less