Friday, November 13, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: +3.
Beans: +12.50. Wheat: +9.

Good evening!

Trivia: What year did the first episode of Sesame Street air? (answer below)

Market Recap-
Happy Friday the 13th. CBOT ag markets ended the week on a high note Friday, with prices in the green across on the board ahead of what looks to be the first real chilly Midwest weekend of the season. We cited more sellers than buyers as reason for the lower trade Thursday, and will follow suit today by saying it felt like there were simply more buyers than sellers to end the week, with there not really a specific reason to point to for the strength seen throughout the session otherwise. For next week, the next round of Trump-Xi talks on the sidelines of the APEC summit in China are likely to be the focus, but there's also still going to be attention paid obviously to South American weather, but also to the wars that remain ongoing in the Middle East and in the Black Sea region.


Corn Summary-
The corn market ended the week in green Friday, though it continues to trade inside of Tuesday's report day range as traders understand there are still questions lingering on the demand side of the balance sheet despite supply coming in slightly lower. We've repeated it plenty, but it's important to understand that longer term price direction over at least the next three or four months at this point is really going to be a product of two things - 1) South American production in Brazil and Argentina and related weather; and 2) whether or not China shows back up as a buyer of US corn. Traders are hopeful they know more regarding the latter in another week or so, but there has been no evidence of a resumption of business to this point.

Soybean Summary-
Both the beans and the products traded in the green to end the week, with newswires pointing to concern over South American weather as reason for the buying. We don't see a whole lot of change in the forecast for Brazil this afternoon, but would instead argue that the buying was maybe chart-based at the 20-day moving average. The week's action has us fairly confident short term seasonal bottoms have been put in for the beans and meal, but would still caution that if rains continue falling through most of the growing regions in the Cerrado over the next four-six weeks, it could lead to somewhat moderate production forecasts seen today being increased a bit, which could then lead to a retest of these lows if nothing new has come about on the demand side to offset it. So long as the Chinese continue to show intention to make good on another 25 MMTs of purchases from the US in 2027, it will be the size of the crop out of Brazil come February/March that drives longer term price direction into next spring's planting season and El Niño to this point simply hasn't had the negative impact many were anticipating.

Wheat Summary-
Wheat added in a bit of war premium ahead of the weekend Friday, as it seems to be more and more apparent that this week's peace discussions yielded little if anything in terms of progress towards a resolution of the ongoing war. It doesn't matter how many leaders get involved or where they come from, there are fundamental differences between the Russians and the Ukrainians that have been played out in a military setting for more than ten years now (Crimea invasion in 2014), and until those are somehow resolved, the two sides are going to continue attacking each other. As winter settles in and the front-lines stall out, we see the war dragging on at least into next spring, which means disruptions in grain shipping likely linger for at least just as long.

Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $0.30+/bbl.

Weather Updates-
Weekend weather across the US looks to be a two-part situation, as a steady flow of storm systems continues to keep the northwest and the broader West Coast wet. However, high pressure in the east limits these systems from getting through the mid-section of the country, and is seen shoving the rains to the south into TX and then out into the Gulf.
The high pressure in the east also allows cooler air from the north to punch all the way down into the southeastern part of the country, with frost risk seen as far south as the northern part of the FL panhandle Saturday and Sunday morning. The cold snap doesn't look to last through the week next week though, as the models have nighttime lows back in the 40s by the end of next week.
Generally speaking, the extended forecast this afternoon looks to stay blocked into the end of the month, which means the pattern stays active as ridges of high pressure are quickly replaced with low pressure troughs and visa-versa. Such a pattern keeps both precip and temperatures volatile, but it’s how these systems interact with each other that will determine the bigger picture forecast into the end of November and first part of December.
A stalled frontal boundary has produced additional rainfall across southern Brazil this week, while rains were regular but spotty through the central and northern regions. Forecasts for next week have more of the same generally speaking, as the shift to more regular monsoonal rains from the north continues to be a slow one and keeps rainfall through the central part of the country spotty in the meantime.
For Argentina, forecasts have regular rains continuing to fall through the week next week with seven day totals this afternoon estimated in a range of a half inch to 3+" across most of the main growing regions. Temperatures look to stay cooler though, with the models seeing daytime highs throughout the week next week staying below average.

Answer: 1969, November 10th.


Enjoy it!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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