Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: -1.
Beans: +2.75. Wheat: +6.75.

Good evening!

Trivia: What is the world’s hottest chili pepper? (answer below)

Market Recap-
There wasn't a ton of follow-through Wednesday following the big WASDE up day in the ag space this week, but the market also didn't give much of the gains back either as trade became increasingly choppy as the day went on. We mentioned yesterday that the pop probably confirmed some sort of short term seasonal bottom, and we feel even better about that assertation after today's price action. This isn't to say we're going to work higher every day now into the end of the year, it just means that fund liquidation has likely wrapped up and that the constant downward pressure should be less going forward. Better selling opportunities lie ahead, but we'll continue to pound the drum that its going to take a weather issue in South America or new Chinese demand for the market to sustain any sort of prolonged up move.

Corn Summary-
Corn futures were lower Wednesday, but well off the lows and inside of the range seen on Tuesday as volume wasn't anything to write home about and as there was little new input on top of what was in the WASDE yesterday. With US production now largely known, the big questions are going to be what happens with South American production come next spring and will China show up for new export business. From a price standpoint, the latter becomes more unlikely and difficult if the market sees any sort of significant price rally, which has thinking that futures are more likely to stay sideways than anything else. The lower production figures and tighter balance sheet should keep things supported, but part of the market's job over the next 3-4 months will be to find a price level that encourages new export demand.

Soybean Summary-
The soy complex finished in the green Wednesday, with the beans and oil building on their report day gains and the meal coming along for the ride. Report-based bullishness is more related to the idea that exports still need to expand further more so than anything that actually changed yesterday. With ending stocks already near what has been perceived as pipeline minimum, such an expansion coupled with any sort of production cut in January would seemingly be cause for demand rationing that becomes problematic due to sky high crush margins and an elevated export book. Opposite to the discussion had on corn, here, the market needs to find a price level that limits new demand, as the US just doesn't have a lot of beans leftover after satisfying domestic crush and export demand to Mexico and China. Like we said above, this doesn't mean we're going to close higher every day for the rest of the year or that prices are immediately going to go back to $13, but it does mean that the market should find support at or around the $12 level and that any further production cuts in January are going to just be that much more bullish.

Wheat Summary-
Wheat futures closed higher Wednesday, as it seemed traders who had placed short bets on optimism that some sort of progress would be made in the Black Sea this week were covering those bets as the meetings have come and gone with little in the way of notable updates. Said one source on the matter, "Moscow and Kyiv are holding to their positions on issues they regard as matters of principle. Both are prepared to keep fighting." This would indicate that the situation didn't change much if at all this week, with the only developments likely to be more discussions with leaders from the US and the EU in the future.

Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $0.30+/bbl.

Weather Updates-
Radar has a decent size low pressure system working across northern IL/southern WI this afternoon, with the storm expected to continue working east tonight and into the day on Thursday. Rainfall totals are minimal - only a tenth or two - but temperatures will drop noticeably into the end of the week with a cold front seen on the back side of the system.
The chill will stretch all the way into the southeast by the weekend, with overnight lows expected to dip below freezing as far south as the northern parts of MS/AL/GA.
Forecasts into the back half of the month are little changed again this afternoon, with the model ensemble runs still showing a wetter pattern re-emerging after next week in the central part of the country, while warm air continues to dominate the bulk of North America. Generally speaking, high pressure in the east and where it lives into the end of the month will be the biggest determining factor in how far east the central US moisture is able to make it.
The weather pattern for South America continues to be little changed, with forecasts still working towards a more normal rainfall pattern through Brazil into the end of the month, while moisture looks to stay generally above average throughout most of Argentina. We've talked about it regularly, but if there's an area of concern at this point its in the south, where too much moisture has been a regular theme all the way through fall.

Answer: Carolina Reaper.


Enjoy it!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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