Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: -5.50 old & -4.50 new.
Beans: +1 old & +4 new. Wheat: -11.
Topflight Grain is offering Free PL on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.

We are also offering Free PL on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good thru August 31, 2026.


Good evening!

Market Recap-
Tuesday trade was mixed in Chicago to start what will be a holiday-shortened week of market action, with the feedstuffs of corn, wheat, and meal lower, while bean oil was higher and the beans themselves saw back-and-forth, two-sided trade throughout most of the day before also closing slightly higher. Amid a lot of the world being out for the week on various holidays, it was a quieter day news-wise, and the question of will or won't China take additional US beans remained at the forefront of attention along with spring US acreage considerations and demand figures that remain elevated.

Corn Summary-
Corn futures were notably lower to get the week started on Tuesday, with spot March futures seemingly interested in taking a run at the lows made last week. With safrinha corn planting off and running in Brazil and some quarter of the way complete, trade focus is ever so slightly beginning to shift back to the coming growing season in the US, which put the USDA's annual Ag Outlook forum scheduled for later this week at the heart of a lot of today's discussions. It's only February and the acreage topic for this spring has already seemingly gotten more traction than normal, but we don't see a lot of reason today that the numbers discussed aren't at the very least similar to the baseline projections put out earlier this month. Those figures predicted corn acres this year at 95 million, while yield was pegged at 182.0 bu/acre, and we would be surprised if outlook numbers the end of the week this week vary much from those marks.

Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures saw choppy trade to start the week this week, with prices lower in the overnight and early in the day this morning before mid-morning buying emerged to lead things higher into the afternoon and close. With China out on holiday this week, traders are forced to sit and ponder for a little longer whether or not additional bean purchases will be made in the weeks/months ahead, and this likely produced the chop that was seen throughout a lot of today's session. Otherwise, there continues to be little in the way of weather issues south of the equator and local reports out of Brazil are indicating yields through the first part of harvest that are above average in a lot of areas. A coming massive supply in Brazil, mixed with likely increasing year/year acres in the US this spring, does not to us, seem like a recipe for a sustained price rally.

Wheat Summary-
The wheat market sold off a bit on Tuesday, with spread liquidation and fund positioning continuing to be the number one reasons given by the newswires for the recent spat of increased volatility in the space. From a chart standpoint, it seems fairly apparent that the market found some sort of solid resistance in the form of the 200-day moving average, which it tested at 5.51 1/4 last week and has since firmly rejected. This marks our obvious upside target this week, with an ongoing correction likely to lead a test of the recent lows just above the 5.20 area. Otherwise, there is some chatter among the faster moving traders that this week's outlook forum may just add one more log to the bearish fire that has been the wheat market from a production standpoint compared to last year, but time will tell when data is released at the end of the week whether this is warranted or not.

Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $0.40/bbl.

Weather Updates-
Midwest forecasts this week are calling for fairly active weather across the Corn Belt, with the models in decent agreement on a pair of storm systems, one first for the northern area and then a second that looks to work further south, coming in over the next several days. Precip totals are seen in a range of a half inch to an inch in the north, which likely comes mostly in the form of snowfall, and then a half inch to 1.5" further south through the southeast from system number two.
Temperatures are expected to remain well above average for a lot of the Midwest and central part of the country for another few days this week before then dropping off Friday and through the weekend and then staying more average to slightly below average into the week next week.
Models in the week two period, which now stretches into the opening days of March, are similar to outlooks seen last week this afternoon, with both the EU and the GFS continuing to show better than normal precip chances through both the eastern and western thirds of the US, while the central area sees average rainfall chances. Temperature-wise, 5-10 day maps have the brief cool-down mentioned above, but then go back to warmer than normal for most all of the US besides the West Coast in the 10-15 day period.
Following good moisture over the weekend for Argentina, models see the forecast staying generally friendly through the week this week and into next, with another couple rounds of storms expected to provide an additional 1-5" of rainfall to the heart of the country between now and the end of the weekend.
To the north, Brazil looks to see a couple days of drier weather through the south-central part of the country, while rains fill in to the south and southeast for some of the country's driest areas over the last month or so. Better moisture returns by the first part of next week, but overall, net-gains should be made in soybean harvest progress over the next week.



Enjoy it!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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