Friday, March 6, 2026
Closing Markets: Corn: +7 old & +6.50 new.
Beans: +21.50 old & +10.25 new. Wheat: +33.

Topflight Grain is offering Free DP on soybeans to all full-time locations except Maroa based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.

We are also offering Free DP on corn delivered to Pierson and Milmine based on space availability good through August 31, 2026.


Good evening!

Market Recap-
Happy Friday. A strong week in Chicago culminated with fireworks on Friday, as the bean and wheat markets put in their strongest days of the week amid what has been a massive influx of speculative money of late. The rally this week, while somewhat simple and trivial, is almost entirely tied to the war in Iran and the sharp rise in global energy values that has been associated with it. We have little if any idea as to how long this conflict is going to be drawn out, but would note that the longer it does, the larger the impact becomes on a number of global markets including oil and fertilizers.



Corn Summary-
Corn futures ended the week sharply higher on Friday, with active buying on large volume again noted throughout almost the whole of the session, driving new crop values to their best levels in well over a year. The farmer, who has been undersold coming into spring, was seemingly quick to reward the move, evidenced by further falls in basis this week across almost the whole of the Midwest. As far as where prices are headed and if this is able to be maintained, those answers largely come down to how high global energy values get and if the Trump administration is able to allow oil supplies to transit the Straight of Hormuz. Should crude oil correct, we see corn also making what would likely be a rather swift correction.

Soybean Summary-
All three members of the soy complex ended the week sharply higher on Friday, led to the upside by the bean oil market who scored another round of new contract highs on the back of the previously discussed rise in world energy values. We're not going to repeat everything we mentioned in our corn commentary, but the bottom line is that there is little if anything else behind the rallies this week other than the rally in energies and the inflow of money based on inflationary fears stemming from the broader global geopolitical situation. The RVO situation and Chinese buying prospects remain on the back burners, but in our opinion, these had little to do with the market action seen this week. That said, as we get into mid-March, headline risk is going to continue to exist in the product space as the EPA's RVO announcement will presumably be made at some point in the next three weeks.

Wheat Summary-
It appeared to be a classic day of 'get me out' in the wheat market to end the week on Friday, as whatever shorts may have been left have now surely been wiped out on the almost 50-cent two-day rally. Yes, the Iran war and the energy situations are also reasons for the rally here, but we're otherwise continuing to scratch our heads as to just what has gotten into the market. The US farmer isn't being a seller, the spec trader isn't being a seller, and the fund trader surely isn't being a seller, and this leaves the market vulnerable to upside runs, which we would argue is a large part of the premise for what has gone on this week. Like most news outlets have reported, it would appear markets are significantly over-valued relative to their underlying fundamentals.

Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $9.60+/bbl.

Weather Updates-
Weekend weather will continue to be active for a lot of the Midwest, with this afternoon's model runs continuing to show additional thunderstorm activity through most of the area tonight and through the day on Saturday. Sunday then into the first part of next week looks a little calmer, but models then bring additional storms and rainfall back into the area by mid-week next week.
Temperatures over the weekend and into next week are seen staying much warmer than normal throughout most of the eastern US, while the west stays a little more variable. The Midwest also becomes a little more variable by the middle of next week, but overall looks to maintain a mostly warmer than normal bias.
Precip anomaly maps in the extended period continued to trend drier in the central US this afternoon, though have stayed wet in the northeast and have also gone wetter through the PNW. On the temperature side, the models are still seeing quite a bit of run-to-run differences, but are in sync on the west being warmer; today, the GFS has the east mostly warmer also, while the EU has cooler air sneaking into the northeast.
Argentina looks to see rains of up to 2-3" in a fairly small area of the country's southwest over the weekend and into next week, while just light/variable precip is seen through the rest of the country. Still no sign of any sort of heat in the forecast, which should be good for soybean crop development. With corn harvest starting to get rolling in some areas, the drier days also won't be a total determent, though pace is already ahead of average.
Brazil will continue to see near-daily rainfall across the northern and north-central parts of the country, while the south sees continued dryness until the middle of next week. The forecast has seemingly been little changed for weeks, but progress data shows that harvest, while behind, has continued to move along though rainfall remains active.



Enjoy it!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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