Friday, April 4, 2025

Morning Markets: Corn -4.75 old & new.
Beans -23.50 old & -26 new. Wheat -10.

MARKET SUMMARY:

Good morning. Happy Friday. It’s been a not so happy Friday to start the last trading session of the week as most commodity markets are once again finding themselves lower to sharply lower this morning, with trepidation over tariffs and world trade continuing to cause selling across most all markets. Farmers and grain traders on Friday will be curious to see if enough inflation-related buying can emerge again in the corn and wheat markets to pull values higher again by the end of the day today like was the case yesterday, but otherwise, momentum is undoubtably lower with the big question for today's session being just how long does the panic last. Whether partner countries announce retaliatory measures today or not at all makes little difference to the fact that either way, it will take time for traders and markets to assess just how the new measures will impact exports in both the 2025/26 season and in future marketing years. Corn futures to start Friday are trading 4-5 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 23-25 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 8-9 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is down around 2.0 cents/lb. Outside markets are lower, crude oil futures are down another $5.50/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down another 1,300 points, and the US$ index is down another 10-20 points. The S&P500 is down 180 points, and the NASDAQ is down 620 points; gold futures are quietly higher.


Crude Oil is down $5.40 at $61.55

US Dollar is down at $101.972

Global Equities: Japan -3.4%, China -1.5%, and Europe -4.7%

Dow futures are down 1,241 points at 39,535

Malaysian Palm Oil: +0.0%

EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -0.5% and Wheat -1.0%



WEATHER:

Weather focus in the US remains mostly in the southeast/mid-south, where 72-hour precip maps show 4-8" of rainfall accumulation over the past few days. Forecasts are also calling for additional rains here through the rest of Friday and into the weekend, with the US model seeing another 2-6" possible for the same parts of S IN/IL and then down the Mississippi into KY/TN/AR that have been getting rains all week. Flood risks remain possible here through at least the next 24 hours, and likely all the way into Monday.
Once this system exits early next week, there remains good model agreement on a pattern shift then occurring which should bring several days of drier weather to most of the Midwest. Along with increasing temps beyond the middle of next week, this dry out will likely allow for some early corn planting progress in the southern tier of the Corn Belt following good boosts in soil moisture the back half of March and into the opening days of April.
Still not a lot new for the South American forecast on Friday, as models continue to show limited precip for most of Argentina through the weekend, while Brazil sees decent rains in the south but generally drier conditions further to the north and northeast. The biggest concern short-term is frost risk in Argentina, as sources here have indicated there is potential for early season frosts over the weekend and into the first part of next week as overnight lows approach freezing.


OTHER HEADLINES:

Obviously a lot of market left today, but so far as of about 6am central time this morning, spot crude oil futures have lost $9/bbl (13%) from Wednesday's high, the Dow Jones index has lost just over 3,000 points (7%), the S&P500 has lost nearly 500 points (8%), and the NASDAQ has lost nearly 2,000 points (10%). Cotton has been the other big loser, with spot prices off some 6.5 cents/lb (10%) from Wednesday's highs.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange yesterday afternoon showed Argentine corn harvest had advanced to 20.3% complete, which continues to be well ahead of both last year and the five-year average. Conditions in the good/excellent category also improved 3% on the week to 77%. Recent rains have caused a small delay in soybean harvest, but the group said in comments that harvest was expected to pick up in coming days. Conditions here improved 2% on the week to also show 77% g/ex.
The USDA's ag attaché to China on Thursday raised their estimate of the country's corn production in the 2025/26 season to 300 mmt's, which would be up about 1.7% from 2024/25, while imports were reduced slightly to 8 mmt's. The adjustments come as China continues to try and become more self-sufficient in grain production, with tariffs possibly leading to further adjustments in the same direction throughout the season.
According to a report from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), world grain trade in the 2024/25 season is seen at 478.9 mmt's, which is down more than 5 mmt's from their previous estimate a month ago and the lowest level since the 19/20 season. Global stocks, however, are still seen down 1.5% from the year prior at 873.3 mmt's. The FAO report also showed global food prices were little changed in the month of March, as rises in veg oil costs were offset by decreases in the price of grains.
According to the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending March 29th totaled 686k tons, which was up 2.4% from the week prior; corn shipments at 401k tons were down just 0.2% on the week, and soybean shipments at 256k tons were up 10.8% on the week. STL barge freight rates were down 96 cents on the week to $17.08/short ton.
Adding to the bearishness in crude oil prices were news reports on Thursday that OPEC+ had unexpectedly announced plans to increase production by 411k bbls/day starting in May, which would be an increase of about 275k bbls/day from their previous output pledge. The group cited continuing healthy market fundamentals as well as a positive market outlook as reasons for the decision.
In response to new trade tariffs from the US, China on Friday announced retaliatory tariffs of 34% on all US goods coming into the country, which matches the amount by which Trump added to China's tariff earlier this week. China's commerce ministry also said it would be implementing more import controls on rare-Earth minerals and some other items.
Aside from tariffs and the ongoing situation surrounding them, equity markets will also see influence on Friday from the Labor Department's non-farm payrolls report for March, which is seen showing an increase of around 140k jobs in the month, and also from comments out of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to speak to reports just before noon today. As far as rates go, the CME's FedWatch tool currently shows a 44.6% chance at a quarter-point cut in the May meeting, while also showing a 46% chance at a subsequent quarter-point cut the month following in June.

EXPORT NEWS:

N/A

Be safe!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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