Tuesday, November 19, 2024
Closing Markets: Corn -2. Beans -11.25. Wheat +2.50.

Market Recap:

Good afternoon. Choppy trade persisted through the day on Tuesday, with corn and soybean futures closing lower and the wheat market closing higher on the day. Beans made it back close to unchanged early in the day session, but rolled over as the morning went on and closed back near where things were going home on Friday, while wheat continues to add war premium and corn was mostly stuck in the middle.

CZ closed Tuesday at 4.27 1/4, down 2 cents. CH was down 2 cents also at 4.37 3/4. SF finished at 9.98 1/2, down 11 1/4. SH was down 10 1/2 cents at 10.08 1/2. WZ closed at 5.49 3/4, up 2 and 1/2 cents. Products were lower, December soybean meal closed at 288.60, down $1.70/ton, and December soybean oil closed at 44.84, down 68 points. Livestock markets were mixed, December live cattle closed at 186.57, up $2.47, January feeders closed at 252.00, up $2.50, and December hogs closed at 79.55, down 47 cents. Live cattle filled the gap left from two weeks ago, feeders made new highs for the move, and hogs made new lows for the move. Outside markets are mixed/relatively quiet; crude oil futures are up 10-20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 150 points, and the US$ index is down 5 points. The S&P500 is up 15 points and the NASDAQ is up 110 points. Also of note, December oats closed at 3.44 3/4, down 19 cents, but traded down the 25 cent trading limit at one point during the session.

Spreads were mostly lower to end the day Tuesday after trading to new highs for their moves earlier in the session; corn spreads were unchanged to 3/4 of a cent lower, and soybean spreads were down 3/4 of a cent to down 5 1/2 cents. CZ/CH closed at -10 1/2, unchanged on the day, and SF/SH was down 3/4 of a cent at -10. New high for CZ/CH at -9 3/4, and new high for SF/SH at -8 1/4.

USDA did not announce any new daily sales flashes this morning for just the fourth trading session in the month of November, and only the tenth session since the start of October. However, as we approach the start of the new calendar year, it is expected this strong pace over the past several weeks will taper off as importers wait and see what happens with Trump tariffs/policy decisions beyond January 20th.

Amid an otherwise lack of fresh breaking news in the ag space, farmer protests in Europe were back in the headlines on Tuesday, though for a different set of circumstances now than were seen earlier this spring/summer. While previous unrest was the result of 'green ag' policies and soaring regulatory costs affecting farm operations, this new round has come about following the announcement of a new budget measure last month that sought to raise funds by increasing the inheritance tax on family farms valued at more than 1 million pounds ($1.3 mil USD) to 20% from the current 0%. Many farmers expressed frustration that while their land and machinery had high values, the profit margins on most of these operations are not large which means inheriting children or other relatives would potentially have to sell land just to pay the taxes. Government officials estimate that roughly just 500 farms would be affected by the new measure annually, but farmers say the number affected will be much higher than this.

Fresh updates on the week's other major headlines were mostly minimal as of this writing on Tuesday. Starting in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he would view the use of NATO weapons inside of Russia as an act of aggression by NATO, and signed a new nuclear doctrine which was viewed as a warning to the West by sources familiar. Just days after current US President Joe Biden authorized the use of such weapons by Ukraine, its forces carried out strikes in the Bryansk region of Russia, hitting an ammunition dump. A further Russian response is possible to occur in the coming days/weeks, but is unclear as of now what a further response by Moscow might entail. And on the other side of the world in Brazil, there remains little fresh updates on the trade agreements between Brazil and China that were announced on Monday; the leaders of the countries are set to meet in Brasilia, Brazil on the sidelines of the G20 summit on Wednesday.

Mid-day weather remains mostly unchanged for the majority of the US. The remains of the low pressure system that swept through the country yesterday and today will continue spinning in the far northeast and into Canada for another couple days this week, while the rest of the country other than the PNW and areas along the Gulf Coast will see several days of drier weather stretching into the first part of next week. Confidence beyond the weekend is low, but week-two maps are in better agreement at mid-day today than they were yesterday in showing a wetter bias for the southeastern corner of the country and also in the central-west, while the PNW takes a turn drier. Whether the progressive ridge/trough pattern that has emerged the last week or two stays in place into December will be the most watched forecast feature over the next two weeks. On the temperature side, models continue to show much cooler air than has been seen through Fall developing in the eastern half of the country, while the west sees a brief warm up into the end of the week/weekend. Longer term, the whole of the country continues to see a much cooler outlook into the first of December.
Will keep South America comments short today, as there continues to be very little change to the overall pattern here as well. Forecasts for Argentina have continued to fluctuate in regards to exact rainfall amounts/locations, but have kept moisture present in some form or fashion for almost all of the country's growing areas over the next two weeks. There are likely to be local areas in the central part of the country who are short-changed by these rains, which we will try to keep monitored. Southern Brazil is also seen taking this wetter shift with northern Argentina, while central and northern Brazil will see continued rains but at more variable frequencies than have been seen through October and the first part of November.



Have a good night!

Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com ... See MoreSee Less