Monday, March 10, 2025
Closing Markets: Corn +2.75 old & +0.75 new.
Beans -11 old & -7.75 new. Wheat +11.25.

Market Recap:

Good afternoon. Corn and soybean markets started the new week mixed on Monday at the CBOT, as wheat futures were able to keep corn in the green for the most part, while the soy complex was dragged lower by bean oil. More specifically, it was the drop in canola futures that caused the bearish headwinds for the complex, as declining values in that market produced sympathy selling in oil that leaked over into the beans and meal. On the other side of the fence, there wasn't really anything specific to lift wheat futures other than continued dryness concerns in the south/southwest and maybe some small-scale short covering ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report.

CK closed Monday at 4.72, up 2 and 3/4. CN was up 2 and 3/4 also at 4.78 1/2. SK finished at 10.14, down 11 cents. SN was down 10 and 1/2 at 10.28 1/4. Outside days lower for both bean contracts. WK closed at 5.62 1/2, up 11 and 1/4. Products were lower, May soybean meal closed at 302.30, down $2.10/ton, and May soybean oil closed at 42.26, down 1.16. Oil took out last week's lows by 5 points, with the low for the year being at 39.99. ICE May canola futures closed at $605.0/ton, down the $40 trading limit. Relatively quiet trade in the livestock markets to start the week, April live cattle were up 30 cents at $200.57, April feeders closed at 277.92, down 22 cents, and April hogs closed at 88.30, up 95 cents. Outside markets are mixed/lower, crude oil futures are down $1.10-1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 850 points, and the US$ index is up 10-15 points. The S&P500 is down 150 points, and the NASDAQ is down 750 points. Stock index futures are all making new lows for the year and are trading to their lowest levels since early last fall. Gold futures are down around $20/oz.

Spreads were also mixed to start the week, with corn spreads unchanged to 2 and 3/4 cents higher, and soybean spreads up a half cent to down 3 cents. CH/CK closed at -13 1/4, up 3/4 of a cent, and SH/SK closed at -14 1/4, up 1/2 of a cent. CK/CN closed at -6 1/2, unchanged, and SK/SN closed at -14 1/4, down a half cent.

USDA this morning started the new week with fresh daily export sales flashes, as private exporters announced the sale of 126k mt's of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2024/25 marketing year and also announced 195k mt's of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/25 marketing year. It is assumed that the soybean business was to someone other than China, as AgResource Co. reported in their mid-day wire that rumors were circulating that they had canceled 1-2 cargoes. Also on the demand side of the market was weekly inspection data, which showed a new marketing year high for weekly corn and inspections. In the week ending March 6th, corn inspections totaled 1.820 mmt's, which was above the upper end of trade expectations and up 35% from last week. Soybean inspections in the week were also good at 844k mt's, which was up 21% from the week prior and at the upper end of trade expectations. And lastly, wheat inspections for the week totaled 216k mt's, which was down 45% from the week prior and below the lower end of trade expectations.

Like we mentioned at the top, Monday was otherwise all about the canola market as new tariffs from China on imports of the oilseed and its products caused selling that spilled over into soybean oil. Meanwhile, Chinese rapeseed (interchangeable with canola) meal and oil futures were up 6% and 5% respectively on Monday, which in the case of meal was the biggest daily gain since 2022. Notable in the verbiage of the tariff announcement was that rapeseed itself was not included in the new duties, just the products of meal and oil, which sources familiar say may leave room for negotiations going forward. In 2024, China imported roughly 6.39 mmt's of the oilseed in 2024, with Canada accounting for nearly all of it; they also imported 2.74 mmt's of meal in the same year. It is notable too that in both 2022/23 and 2023/24, China imported more of the raw seed itself than it did of meal and oil combined.
South American weather was little changed at mid-day, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center continuing to forecast limited moisture for most of Argentina over the next 5 days, while light/scattered rains are expected to eastern/southeastern Brazil. Temperatures in the same period are expected to stay above average throughout most of Brazil, while Argentina will be mostly below average. The timing of the pattern shift is near-ideal for farmers in both countries; the Brazilian farmer has caught up on corn planting, with AgRural today noting safrinha planting progress at 92%, while soybean harvest has reached 61% complete. Conab will update their numbers this evening, which we will report in the morning. And in Argentina, corn harvest has started with BAGE reporting 6.7% of the crop taken out as of last Thursday, which means dryness will likely be of benefit after several days of rains.
Weather in the Midwest will be mostly uneventful for the first half of this week, before a low-pressure system is forecast to bring potentially heavy rain and snow to the upper Midwest by the end of the week and into the weekend. The GFS's mid-day run shows snowfall mostly confined to Minnesota and further north into Canada, while areas further south expect to see mostly rainfall. The West Coast will also be wet the back half of this week, with California/Washington/Oregon expected to pick up 1-3" of precip between now and next Monday. Further out, week-two precip maps show above average moisture potential in the northwest and also through the northeastern Midwest and are in good agreement today on their output. Getting into temperatures, highs across much of the upper Midwest this week will be some 20-30 (!) degrees F above average, with places in central/southern Minnesota recording highs in the 70's multiple times this week. The west meanwhile looks to stay cool through this week and into next. There is also not a lot of evidence in this pattern changing, as there is good model agreement on mostly the same warm east/cool west pattern for the next two weeks.
Good luck with tomorrow's USDA WASDE report; as has been the case for the last several reports it seems, the trade is not looking for anything overly Earth-shattering in the numbers, but you just never know what the government might say at 11am central time.

Have a great night!

Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com ... See MoreSee Less