Monday, October 28, 2024
Morning Markets: Corn -2.
Beans -8.25. Wheat +0.50.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. The last week of trading in October has started lower on Monday, as the ag markets are being pulled to the downside by sharply lower energy markets; front month crude oil futures had a huge gap-lower open last night, and are down more than 6% as of this writing. A weekend missile attack against Iran by Israel did not target any of Iran's energy or nuclear infrastructure, which the markets took as a sign of de-escalation. Furthermore, comments by both sides following the attack seemed to again strike a more cooperative tone, with some seeing the prospects of a ceasefire in Gaza now back on the table. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 6-7 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is up 1-2 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $1/ton, and soybean oil is down 90-100 points. Corn and soybean oil both also had gap-lower opens last night. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down more than $4.40/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 100 points, and the US$ index is down 10 points. The S&P500 is up 25 points, and the NASDAQ is up 120 points; gold futures are around $10/oz lower.
Crude Oil is up $1.50 at $71.69
US Dollar is up at $104.317
Global Equities: Japan -0.7%, China +0.5%, and Europe +0.2%
Dow futures is down 320 points at 42,285
Malaysian Palm Oil: +0.0%
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -2.2% and Wheat -2.1%
WEATHER:
• Satellite data over the weekend showed additional light showers through the eastern Corn Belt with totals generally limited to a tenth or two; the Pacific Northwest also saw rains over the weekend, with totals here ranging from 0.1-3".
• Forecasts for the rest of this week continue to show a wetter pattern emerging for most all of the country by Thursday/Friday; the western Plains are slated to receive anywhere from trace amounts to an inch, while the eastern part of the country from TX all the way to MI and also further east will see totals of possibly upwards of 6" in some places by the middle of next week.
• Week-two forecasts have also continued to show a wetter bias into the second week of November through the central and eastern parts of the country over the weekend.
• Temps will be borderline hot through the Midwest for the first couple days of this week, before a cold front moves from the west to the east at mid-week, dropping things back towards more average levels. By the weekend though, the east will again see above average temperature biases, while the west turns back cooler.
• Brazil saw good rains over the weekend according to satellite data, with totals ranging anywhere from 0.5" to 4" through most of the central and northern growing regions; far southern areas were short-changed and mostly dry. Argentina was also on the dry side, with just areas around Buenos Aires receiving very light precip.
• Models see a similar pattern emerging for this week, as Brazil will continue to see good rainfall chances in almost all growing regions besides the south; Argentina sees better rainfall chances by the coming weekend, but will otherwise be mostly dry this week in the meantime.
OTHER HEADLINES:
• Friday afternoon's cattle on feed report for October showed the October 1 cattle herd at 11.600 mil head, or 100% of last year. Placements in September totaled 2.156 mil head (-2% from last year) and marketings totaled 1.698 mil head (+2% from last year).
• Also out Friday was the CFTC commitment of traders report for the week ending October 22nd, which showed managed money traders are now net-short 71,499 contracts of corn (+15,489), net-short 59,5734 contracts of soybeans (-19,234), and are net-short 28,915 contracts of Chicago wheat (-2,902).
• In soy products, managed money traders are now net-long 56,448 contracts of soybean meal (+737), and are net-long 40,649 contracts of soybean oil (+13,711).
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's weekly report, released last week, showed corn planting progress in the country had advanced to 28.9%, up from 24.3% last week as rains slowed progress a bit. The exchange still has not given an estimate of soybean planting pace.
• Aside from happenings in the Middle East, equity markets this week are also seeing influence from a declining Japanese yen, which fell to its lowest level since July overnight; the BOJ is set to meet on Wednesday this week.
EXPORT NEWS:
• 124,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
• 120,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Have a good day!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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