Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Morning Markets: Corn +3.75 old & +3.25 new.
Beans +3.50 old & +2 new. Wheat +1.25.

MARKET SUMMARY:

Good morning. Happy April Fool's Day! Though volume is improving, ag markets in Chicago have remained mostly quiet again through the overnight hours following what was widely considered one of the more uneventful March stocks/seedings days in recent history. NASS did little to nothing to alter pre-existing market outlooks for either corn or soybeans, which quickly turned the attention of most back to the looming tariff situation that seems to be coming to a head at some point in the next 48 hours. Remember, it is how foreign countries respond to the new measures that will be potentially bearish US ag, not the measures Trump announces tomorrow on the other countries. We also can't rule out some type of buy the rumor/sell the fact trade like what's happened yesterday and today in corn, as with this being on the radar for a month+ now one has to assume at least some amount of the shock/anxiety has been priced in. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading 3-5 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 2-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 3-5 cents also. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is up 60-70 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are up 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 270 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 is down 30 points, and the NASDAQ is down 110 points; gold futures are up another $10-15/oz and again made new contract highs for now the fourth consecutive session.

Crude Oil is up $0.06 at $71.54

US Dollar is up at $104.324

Global Equities: Japan +0.1%, China +0.4%, and Europe +0.5%

Dow futures are down 254 points at 42,005

Malaysian Palm Oil: +0.0%

EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -0.5% and Wheat +0.7%



WEATHER:

Satellite-derived rainfall data for the last 24 hours shows light/unexpected showers through southern Argentina yesterday from Buenos Aires to Cordoba, while rainfall in Brazil remained focused on the far south; there was a band of south-central Brazil that also saw measurable precip, but growing areas further to the north were dry. Overnight forecasts continue to show a lack of rain potential throughout Argentina and have also trended drier in the short term for most of Brazil besides the far south, which will need monitoring over the next few weeks.
24-hour rainfall data for the US shows more steady rains through the south/southeast on Monday, with totals generally ranging from 0.1-1" from LA through AL/MS/GA and then up into the Carolina's and the eastern half of TN. The Corn Belt, for the most part, saw a drier/cooler day though, largely missing out on the precip.
Forecast-wise, more severe weather is expected through the central part of the country tonight and into tomorrow, as another low-pressure system works its way across the Rocky's and then up and through the western/northwestern Midwest. Precip totals for the southeast/southern Midwest are estimated in a range of 1-8" over the next 5-7 days, with the heaviest totals seen roughly from AR up the Miss. and then through S MO/IL/IN and into N KY and SW OH. Further north, parts of the Dakota's and MN will see potentially heavy snowfall from this system, with the GFS forecasting anywhere from 3-8" in accumulation.

OTHER HEADLINES:

NASS's seeding intentions/stocks data yesterday was largely as expected, and did not do a lot to alter pre-existing fundamentals in either corn or soybeans; corn acres were pegged at 95.326 million, soybean acres were pegged at 83.495 million, and wheat acres were pegged at 45.35 million. Corn stocks as of March 1 were seen at 8.151 billion, soybean stocks were seen at 1.910 billion, and wheat stocks were seen at 1.237 billion.
Brazil's Conab late last night released their weekly crop progress update, which showed a slowing rate of soybean harvest compared to recent weeks with just a 5% improvement to 81.4% complete, which remains well ahead of the five-year average at 67.2%. Safrinha corn planting is nearly completed, with the report showing progress here at 97.9%.
The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils and grain crushing report this afternoon at 2pm central time. According to a survey of Bloomberg analysts, the trade expects soybean crush in the month of February at 188.7 mil bu's, which would be down about 11% from January's figure and down more than 2% from February of last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of February are estimated at 2.268 bil lbs, compared to 2.147 bil lbs last year. On the grain crush report, corn used for ethanol is seen at 417.2 mil bu's, down 9% from January and down 6% from February 2024.
Weekly winter wheat ratings, released by the USDA for select states through the winter months, showed g/ex conditions in KS holding steady on the week at 49%, while further dry/windy weather led to a 5% decline in TX to 26% and a 4% decline in OK to 33%; Colorado improved 1% to 67% g/ex. As a reminder, the USDA's regular weekly crop progress report is set to resume next week on Monday, April 7th, at its normal 3pm central time.
Yesterday's weekly export inspections report from the USDA for the week ending March 27th showed corn inspections in the week at 1.614 mmt's, which was up from last week and above the upper end of trade expectations, while soybean inspections at 793k mt's and wheat inspections at 436k mt's were both down from last week but near the upper end of trade expectations.
USDA Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins on Monday, speaking at an ethanol plant in western Iowa, said that her agency plans on releasing over $530 million in funding under the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program to help expand biofuel infrastructure across the US; Rollins added that there were 543 projects that would be receiving the funding, but gave no details as to a timeline on when the funds should be expected to go out.
On the tariff front, the Trump administration on Monday released a 397-page annual report on foreign trade barriers, which most familiar assume will be the basis of tomorrow's reciprocal tariff announcements; otherwise, there wasn't a lot new in the last 24 hours other than sources also seeming to indicate that the Rose Garden ceremony announced yesterday will begin at 2pm central time tomorrow.

EXPORT NEWS:

N/A

Be safe!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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