Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Morning Markets: Corn -3.50.
Beans -15.50. Wheat -7.25.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning! Election day has come and gone, and the sun has come up again this morning. Former Republican leader Donald Trump, who survived multiple assassination attempts and a litany of legal proceedings over the past several months, has been re-elected for a second term and will serve as the 47th President of the United States. Markets have reacted mostly expectedly so far - ag futures are lower across the board, stocks and the US$ are sharply higher, and the bond market and metals markets are sharply lower. Corn futures this morning at the CBOT are down 2-4 cents, soybean futures are down 19-20 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is down 8-10 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is down 20-30 points. Outside markets are mixed also, crude oil futures are down around $1.80/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 1,300(!) points, and the US$ index is up 200(!) points; the S&P500 is is up 125 points and the NASDAQ is up 340 points. Gold is down $35/oz, bonds are down almost 3 full points, and Bitcoin has surged to new contract highs. New contract highs also for the Dow and the S&P, and the $ is within 10 points of its contract highs.
Crude Oil is down $1.34 at $70.65
US Dollar is up at $105.351
Global Equities: Japan +1.9%, China -2.2%, and Europe +0.3%
Dow futures is up 1340 points at 43,721 points
Malaysian Palm Oil: +0.0%
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.2% and Wheat -0.3%
WEATHER:
• More rainfall was seen across the southern Midwest and through the midsouth on Tuesday; 72-hour satellite data shows rainfall totals across parts of AR/MO/Southern IL have reached upwards of 8", which is better than what the forecasts had called for.
• For the rest of this week, the northern tier of the Midwest will see a few days of drier conditions while the south into the mid-south stays wet through the weekend and into next week. The EU output is wetter, and sees the best coverage in NM/CO/KS/OK/TX with totals reaching up to 2-3" with some locally heavier amounts.
• Week-two forecasts continue to show above average moisture chances for most of the country into November 20th, meaning there are still no signs that this new wet pattern will quickly abate. Soil moisture conditions should significantly improve across a big chunk of the US ag belt over the next couple weeks.
• More of the same for South America on Tuesday, as it has become a bit of rinse and repeat in regards to their daily weather. Argentina was on the dry side save for areas in the north and northwest, while central/northern Brazil continues to see daily shower chances of 0.1-1.5". Flooding concerns in the north are a long way off amid depleted soil moisture levels.
• Forecast continues to show short-term dryness in Argentina for the rest of this week before a storm system again provides decent moisture early next week. Week-two precip anomalies are mostly dry, which will be monitored. No updates for Brazil.
OTHER HEADLINES:
• Deliveries for Wednesday according to the CME Group included 107 contracts of soybeans, and 255 contracts of rough rice. The beans were issued by JP Morgan and stopped by ADM.
• This morning's weekly ethanol production report for the week ending November 1 is expected to show daily production in a range of 1.070-1.086 mil bbls, while stocks for the week are seen between 21.371-22.000 mil bbls.
• Early indications show the Republican party has also won control of the Senate, but the control of the House of Representatives is still undecided as of this writing.
• According to sources in India, palm oil imports into the country in the month of October were up nearly 60% from September's figures at 840k mt's. Refiners boosted purchases to replenish stocks that were depleted by a lack of imports earlier in the year, and also strong domestic demand.
• EU soft wheat exports in the marketing year that started July 1 have reached 7.76 mmt's as of Sunday, November 3rd, compared to 11.33 mmt's as of the same date last year. The commission continues to note that data is incomplete for France, Bulgaria, and Ireland.
• Purdue University's ag economy barometer showed ag sentiment across the countryside improved by 27 points in the month of October to a score of 115; this compares to 88 in September, and a reading of 110 for the month of October last year.
• Other reactionary fallout from the election overnight includes the Brazilian Real again falling back towards contract lows, while its spread to the US$ has reached the widest levels of all time at more than 6 to 1. This is a positive for the Brazilian farmer.
• A portion of the financial world will quickly back-burner the election results, as Wednesday marks the start of the Fed's November FOMC meeting. The CME's FedWatch tool is showing this morning that the election had little to no impact on rate implications, as there remains a more than 97% chance that a quarter-point cut will be announced tomorrow afternoon.
EXPORT NEWS:
• N/A
Be safe out there!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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