Wednesday, January 8, 2025
Morning Markets: Corn -2. Beans -2.50. Wheat -6.50.
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning! CBOT markets have been quiet overnight, with corn and beans trading either side of unchanged early to start Wednesday. A sharply higher $ index to start the day is capping the upside to an extent, but higher trade in soybean oil is helping the beans. As has been the case all week, and going back to last week, Argentina weather remains at the forefront of most market discussions, with crop loss needed to sustain any sort of price rally into the US Spring planting season. Otherwise, fund activity and AI/algorithm trading likely continues to dominate much of the price action in the meantime. Corn futures this morning are trading around a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 4-5 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $4-5/ton, and soybean oil is up 60-70 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 30-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 60 points, and the US$ index is up 60-70 points. The S&P500 is near unchanged and the NASDAQ is down 50 points.
Crude Oil is up $0.48 at $74.73
US Dollar is up at $109.314
Global Equities: Japan -0.6%, China -0.9%, and Europe -0.7%
Dow futures is down 115 points at 42,688
Malaysian Palm Oil: +0.0%
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.5% and Wheat +0.3%
WEATHER:
• Starting weather comments today on the West Coast, where potentially deadly winds have caused wildfires to scorch nearly 3,000 acres in/around the North LA Pacific Palisades neighborhood. The worst of the winds fanning the fire are expected to have passed, but officials think the fires likely won't stop until they reach the Pacific Ocean.
• Otherwise, US forecasts were again largely unchanged going into Wednesday. A snow system is still expected to impact the mid-south and southern tier of the Midwest beginning Thursday night and running through Friday, while snows forecast for the central and northern Plains are seen as lighter and more scattered than was seen yesterday. The PNW looks to be calm for another couple days, before snows return going into the weekend.
• Temperature outlooks continue to be in very poor agreement both in the 5-10 day period and the 10-15 day period; the 5-10 day forecast shows a pocket of warmth in the central US in the EU AI model, but neither of the ensembles are offering this. And then in the 10-15 day, the AI model is significantly colder through most all of the country than either of the ensembles, and sees cold Arctic air impacting almost the entirety of the western US.
• Precip outlooks in the week-two period shifted wetter overnight, with the models seeing decent agreement on a wetter than normal bias for generally the southern 1/3 of the country, while wet conditions are expected to continue out of the Southwest and up through the Plains. The West Coast is expected to stay dry, while regions to the east see equal chances at above average and below average precip.
• Argentina on Tuesday again saw light/scattered rains in the west and the southwest portions of the country, while areas to the north and east and into southern Brazil remained dry. Central and northern Brazil saw another day of average rains, with areas picking up 0.1-0.5" generally with some locally heavier amounts.
• Forecast wise, the models removed some of the rains for northern Argentina in the two week period that were seen yesterday, but was unchanged over the short term. Northeast Argentina into southern Brazil and Paraguay look to remain dry for at least the rest of the week and through the weekend.
OTHER HEADLINES:
• There was again no new soybean deliveries assigned for Wednesday, but the CME Group did assign another 127 contracts of soybean meal, and another 89 contracts of soybean oil.
• This morning's weekly ethanol production report for the week ending January 3rd is expected to show daily production for the week in a range of 1.100-1.115 mil bbls, and is expected to show stocks for the week in a range of 23.60-24.00 mil bbls.
• S&P Global, formerly the Informa group, released new monthly world crop estimates on Tuesday; the group made no adjustments to corn production in Argentina or Brazil, but raised Brazil's soybean crop estimate by 6 mmt's to 175.0 mmt's. They made no adjustment to Argentina's soybean crop.
• According to data from the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports in the marketing year started July 1 totaled 11.2 mil tons through January 5th, which is down more than 30% from the same period last year; the commission continues to note that the export data is incomplete for Italy, France, Bulgaria, and Ireland due to technical issues.
• The Minneapolis Grain Exchange, in a weekly report, showed stocks of hard spring wheat stored in MN and WI warehouses fell to 12.73 mil bu's in the week ending January 5th, which was down nearly 25% from last year but up about 3% from last week.
• Indonesia's Trade Ministry on Tuesday issued new guidance and regulations on exports of used cooking oil and other palm oil residue to ensure domestic supply is plentiful enough to support the country's implementation of B40 biodiesel blending. Exporters must now apply for a permit which will be valid for six months.
• Equity markets on Wednesday look to have their attention on this afternoon's release of the minutes for the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting, and will again be looking for any signs of what may be in store for the rest of 2025 after officials hinted at just 50 basis points of rate cuts likely over the next 12 months.
• As a reminder, markets at the CBOT will see an early 12:15pm central time close tomorrow, January 9th, to honor the death of former President Jimmy Carter; the stock markets and stock index futures will be closed for the day, while metals and energy products will have normal trading hours. The proceedings will also delay the release of the regular weekly export sales report to Friday.
EXPORT NEWS:
• Private exporters reported sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Have a good day!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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