Thursday, October 17, 2024
Morning Markets: Corn -1.75.
Beans -7. Wheat -2.75.
TOPFLIGHT GRAIN WILL BE CLOSED ON SUNDAY, OCTOBER 20th
TFG Customer Appreciation Lunches from 11:30-1:30pm!!
TOMORROW!!! Seymour
United Prairie will be serving Harvest Lunches on Wednesday, October 23rd in Emery
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. More red ink on the screen to begin Thursday, as markets at the CBOT are back to trading lower. Soybeans have so far been the downside leader and have made new lows again for the week overnight, with the grain markets in tow. Corn futures continue to hold the $4 mark, which is the key downside support level that the bull camp would like to see held going into the weekend, but as we mentioned earlier this week, a failure of this level likely leads to further downside pressure in the days following. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 8-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 3-4 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is down 10-20 points. Outside markets are quiet/mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 60 points, and the US$ index is down 10 points. The S&P500 is up 25 points and the NASDAQ is up 170 points.
Crude Oil is up $0.27 at $70.66
US Dollar is down at $103.482
Global Equities: Japan -0.1%, China -1.0%, and Europe +1.0%
Dow futures is up 77 points at 43,419
Malaysian Palm Oil: +0.0%
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.2% and Wheat +0.1%
WEATHER:
• Forecast updates for the Midwest continue to be minimal; both the EU and GFS models continue to be in good agreement on coming precip of up to 3" in parts of the southwest beginning tonight and lasting through the weekend, while the eastern half of the country will continue to remain dry.
• The EU AI model's week-two run last night featured a much wetter bias for the eastern Corn Belt than what was seen yesterday, but the EU and GFS ensemble models are not in agreement; the CPC run is somewhere in the middle. As has been the case all week, run-to-run variability keeps confidence in these forecasts low.
• Temps will begin increasing today and will continue following this trend into the weekend and the first part of next week; highs will return to the mid-70's for most of the Corn Belt by Saturday, with night-time lows not expected to fall below 40*F.
• Rinse and repeat for rainfall in South America on Wednesday, with the exception being a drier day for northern Argentina than was had on Tuesday. Heaviest rains in Brazil were seen in east-central regions, with totals here reaching up to 4" in places.
• Changes in the forecast were again minimal, with steady rains still expected to fall through central Brazil for the rest of this week and into the first part of next week. Rains look to again lighten for Argentina in the week-two period, but will be average to above average over the next 10 days.
OTHER HEADLINES:
• This morning's weekly ethanol production report, delayed a day this week for the Columbus day holiday on Monday, is expected to show daily production for the week ending October 11th in a range of 1.005-1.052 mil bbls, while stocks for the week are seen in a range of 21.20-22.90 mil bbls.
• Many in the trade are attributing the fall in soybean prices this week to a return to 'Trump trade' by investors following an early-week Bloomberg article that featured Trump touting new tariffs should he be elected this November.
• French farm office FranceAgriMer lowered their estimate of the country's soft wheat exports from 10.1 mmt's last month to now 10.025 mmt's. The reduction includes a 61% decline in sales outside the EU. Corn exports, however, are seen slightly higher than last month's 4.53 mmt's at 4.69 mmt's.
• China's ag authority from its main soybean producing province on Wednesday said the state had completed soybean harvest on roughly 90% of it's 1.38 mil planted hectares; this is roughly 10% faster than last year, and yields are expected to be record high according to the source.
• Main news in the equity world on Thursday will be a rate decision from the European Central Bank, who is again expected to cut interest rates in the EU by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting. In the US, monthly retail sales data will be the main data point for the day, with an expectation that sales will be up 0.3% from August.
EXPORT NEWS:
• 197,180 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
• 101,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Be safe out there!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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