Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Morning Markets: Corn -3.
Beans -9.25. Wheat -3.50.
TFG Customer Appreciation Lunches from 11:30-1:30pm!!
10/16 Johnston Siding
10/18 Seymour
Olympia FFA will be serving a free meal TOMORROW!!! Wednesday, October 16th from 5-6:30pm in Tabor and Atlanta
United Prairie will be serving Harvest Lunches on Wednesday, October 23rd in Emery
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. A further removal of premium in the energy markets has led to continued selling in the ag space to start Tuesday, as the feed grains and the soy complex are all lower. Corn, soybeans and wheat have all taken out yesterday's lows so far in overnight trading, as a general 'risk-off' sentiment seems to have taken over the space in recent days. And aside from tensions simmering a bit in the Middle East, an ever-improving weather situation in South America is also not helping the bull camp in the ag space. For today, most of the trade's attention will start in Brazil with Conab's October supply and demand report; but due to the holiday yesterday, a plethora of ag-specific data is due out the rest of the day, which potentially keeps trading volatile through the day on Tuesday. Corn futures to start the day are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are 5-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 1-2 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is down 5-10 points; both products have also taken out yesterday's lows. Outside markets are mixed/lower, crude oil futures are down $3.10/bbl and are nearly $1 off their lows, the Dow Jones index is up 10 points, and the US$ index is down 15 points. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ are both near unchanged. New contract highs again for the Dow overnight.
Crude Oil is down $2.94 at $70.89
US Dollar is down at $103.135
Global Equities: Japan +0.6%, China -3.7%, and Europe -0.5%
Dow futures is up 24 points at 43,387
Malaysian Palm Oil: +0.0%
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -0.9% and Wheat -0.7%
WEATHER:
• Mostly quiet night last night weather wise; the US forecast continues to call for improved rainfall chances in the western Plains beginning late Wednesday/Thursday, while the Northeast sees chances at light/scattered precip through the end of this week with totals generally less than 0.5".
• Cool air has settled into the eastern half of the country this morning, with highs from North Dakota to North Carolina not expected to surpass the 60*F mark today; frost potential exists as far as south as OK/AR/TN tonight/tomorrow morning, though temps will then gradually warm back up into the end of the week/weekend. Highs return to the upper 60's/70's by Friday/Saturday.
• The EU AI week-two forecast, which has been the wettest of the week-two runs, trended drier through the Midwest overnight. There continues to be little agreement though between the models, which as mentioned yesterday, keeps our confidence in their output low. Week-two temp guidance sees a warmer east/cooler west bias into the end of October.
• Satellite data in South America showed another day of spotty showers in Brazil/Argentina; best coverage in Brazil was in Goias/Minas Gerais in the east/central part of the country, while Argentina again saw a pocket of good rains from Buenos Aires west, and also in the far northern part of the country near the border with Paraguay.
• Rains will continue to favor north/central regions in Brazil over the next few days, while the south sees a bit of a dry spell. Keep in mind, rains have been falling in the south since September, so a few dry days here will not be a problem. Northern Argentina into Paraguay also looks to pick up an additional 2-3" of rain into the end of this week.
OTHER HEADLINES:
• For this morning's Conab October report, the trade sees Brazil soybean production in the 2024/25 season at 166.24 mmt's and sees total corn production in at 121.5 mmt's; these compare to current estimates of 147.4 mmt's and 115.7 mmt's for the 2023/24 season.
• This morning's NOPA crush report for the month of September is expected to show soybean crush in the month at 170.3 mil bu's, compared to 158 mil bu's in August and 165.5 mil bu's in Sep of 2023.
• Mexican rail group Ferromex, along with US rail company Union Pacific, issued a joint statement on Monday saying they have stopped issuing permits for some grain rail shipments moving through Eagle Pass, TX following a train derailment. Ferromex says the halt is temporary and should not affect total grain movement between the two groups.
• Crude oil futures are down more than 5% this morning on not only OPEC lowering global demand forecasts for now the third time in both 2024 and 2025 on shrinking Chinese demand, but also due to news reports that Israel has said it is willing not to attack Iranian oil assets in a retaliatory move.
• According to the Soybean Processors Association of India, soybean production in the country during the coming season could potentially be up by around 6% from last year to 12.58 mmt's due to favorable weather which could help boost yield.
EXPORT NEWS:
• 131,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
• 120,000 metric tons of soft red winter wheat for delivery to Mexico during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Have a good day!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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