Tuesday, February 4, 2025
Morning Markets: Corn +1.25 old & -1.50 new.
Beans -3 old & -4.25 new. Wheat -7.25.

MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning! Mostly quiet trade has been seen at the CBOT overnight to start Tuesday, as President Trump was able to strike a deal with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau late yesterday afternoon that brought a 30-day delay to the tariff proposals similar to the one seen earlier in the day with Mexico. Bean oil has expectedly been the biggest reactor so far in the overnight session, with futures gapping lower on the delay. Remember, bean oil pricing as it relates to tariffs is all about the idea that domestic demand will increase due to lower imports of canola oil, and this has entirely accounted for the price action in both of the markets over the last session and a half. Corn futures this morning are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 5-6 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is down 1.50-1.60. Outside markets are mostly lower, crude oil futures are down $1.50/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 70 points, and the US$ index is down 40-45 points. The S&P500 is near unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 45 points. Crude oil and the $ both gapped lower on the open last night. No new contract highs or lows for gold, coffee, or cotton.

Crude Oil is down $1.59 at $71.57
US Dollar is down at $108.654
Global Equities: Japan +0.7%, China +2.8%, and Europe +0.4%
Dow futures is down 98 points at 44,467
Malaysian Palm Oil: +0.0%
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn -0.6% and Wheat -0.5%

WEATHER:
• Monday's weather in Argentina was similar to that seen through the weekend, as rains impacted a fairly small area south and west of Buenos Aires according to satellite data; totals ranged from trace amounts to 3+" in a small, local area. Further north and into southern Brazil remained dry, while south-central Brazil saw continued rains of 0.5-1.5" generally; northern and north-central Brazil saw just light/scattered showers.
• Forecasts are little changed from yesterday, with continued rains expected in southern Argentina the next few days this week and a shift to a wetter pattern in the north still seen beyond the weekend and into next week. The eastern 2/3's of Brazil's growing regions also still expect to dry out a bit beyond next week, as rains shift further south and also north into the Amazon. Confidence is growing in regards to a shifting weather pattern beyond next week.
• Midwest US weather looks to be mostly quiet for Tuesday, before light rains are seen working their way north and east out of the Gulf through the day on Wednesday. Models this morning are seeing some ice/snow potential on the back side of this for the northern Midwest and the northeast into Thursday morning, but exactly where this transition occurs will be hard to predict. Otherwise, the PNW looks to remain the most active spot in the US, as heavy precip continues to fall through at least Wednesday.
• Temperatures starting today will be quite variable, as cold air from Canada intrudes south into the central part of the US; there will be a sharp gradient line near MT/WY, where to the north temps will be some 20-30 degrees below normal, but to the south, temps will be some 20-30 degrees above normal. Generally speaking, models are keeping the southwest and southeast warm, while the north and central part of the US turn back cooler.

OTHER HEADLINES:
• In part of the deal made with Canada, Trudeau announced that his country would be implementing a new $1.3 billion dollar border plan to help stop the flow of fentanyl into the US; he also mentioned a new Canada-US joint task force to combat organized crime, drugs, and money laundering, as well as other resources that were part of the agreement.
• Though Trump was able to secure deals with two of the three countries in the tariff crosshairs over the weekend, he was unable to complete to the trifecta as new 10% tariffs on Chinese goods went into effect last night, and were met with retaliation by Beijing in the form of 15% duties on US coal and LNG (liquid natural gas), as well as 10% duties on crude oil, farm equipment, and some cars, amongst other items. The new Chinese tariffs have a start date of February 10, and Trump has said he expects to have conversations with Chinese leaders sometime in the next 24 hours.
• Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its monthly Fats & Oils report and also the monthly grain crush reports for December; soybean crush in the month was seen at 218 mil bu's - a new monthly record - and soybean oil stocks were seen at 1.696 bil lbs. Corn used for ethanol was seen at 473.2 mil bu's, while total corn use in the month totaled 521 mil bu's.
• Monthly winter wheat conditions, also released yesterday by the USDA, generally showed declines in the main growing states compared to the figures seen in January; ratings in TX and OK in the good/excellent category fell by 5% a piece to 37% and 40% respectively, while NE declined 2% to 25% and CO declined 13% to 57%. KS ratings were up 3% on the month to 50%, and SD also improved 3% to 25%. Montana remains the best rated state at 71% g/ex, up 29% from January.
• Private Brazilian ag consultancy Celeres raised their estimate of Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to 174 mmt's; US group StoneX also made production estimate adjustments, but inversely lowered their estimate from 171.4 mmt's in January to 170.9 mmt's now. Private forecasts will be ongoing as harvest continues, but it seems at this point most are in agreement on a number that is above 170.0 mmt's today.
• President Trump is scheduled to give a joint press conference after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This marks the first foreign leader to be hosted at the White House since Trump re-entered office in January, and talks are expected to focus on the war in Gaza, as talks between Israel and Hamas are set to resume later this week.

EXPORT NEWS:
• Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Have a good day!

Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com ... See MoreSee Less