Thursday, December 4, 2025
Morning Markets: Corn: +1.
Beans: +4. Wheat: -2.50.
Christmas Open House is coming up! 11am-1pm!
Cisco – Tuesday, 12/16
Seymour & Pierson – Wednesday, 12/17
Emery & Kruger – Thursday, 12/18
Grain Marketing Program signups are due by 12/31/25!! Contact your originator with any questions or if interested in signing up!
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Chicago ag markets are once again quietly mixed this morning in a similar fashion to previous days this week, as traders continue to position for next week's December WASDE update and as news otherwise remains abysmally slow coming out of the Thanksgiving holiday. With weekly export sales data still not current and presumably a non-factor to most in the trade, attention for Thursday will be mostly focused on whether another round of daily sales flashes to China show up this morning; aside from this, we will be watching to see if technical trading shows back up again throughout the day today as there is little new this morning from a fundamental standpoint otherwise. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 3-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading near unchanged. Products are in the green, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton and soybean oil is up 10-20 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are up 35-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 40 points and the US$ index is up 5 points; the S&P500 and the NASDAQ are both near unchanged.
Crude Oil is up $0.38 at $59.33
US Dollar is up at $98.84
Global Equities: Japan +0.2%, China +0.4%, and Europe +0.2%
Dow futures are up 44 points at 47,998
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.0% and Wheat +0.0%
WEATHER:
US weather the rest of the week this week and into the weekend looks to feature rather heavy rainfall across the Gulf states and the lower southeast, and also through WA/OR/ID and the broader PNW, while the Midwest sees generally drier conditions for a few days. To the northern part of the region, there will be some light snowfall possible the next 48 hours from little low-pressure features around the broader Hudson Bay trough, while a band of heavier snowfall is seen working out of eastern MT Friday into Saturday, and then working through parts of SD and IA into Sunday. Models see the system losing momentum at this point, which keeps this snowfall generally west of the Mississippi.
In South America, models are continuing to fine-tune precip locations in Argentina from the coming storm system Sun/Mon/Tues next week, and have this precip slightly further north and west than was seen yesterday. Otherwise, there is little change elsewhere as northern and north-central Brazil continue to see regular rainfall through the weekend, while moisture is still expected to fill back in in the southern areas by the middle of next week. Temperature-wise, there will be some isolated pockets of warmth through the southern part of Brazil the next 10 days, but otherwise, anomaly maps show most of the area staying average to slightly below average further to the west.
OTHER HEADLINES:
CME Group assigned a lighter delivery slate this morning for Thursday, with just 95 contracts of bean oil and 3 contracts of KC wheat on the rundown.
StatsCanada is set to release quarterly crop production estimates this morning at 7:30am central time. Traders see the report showing Canadian wheat production at 38.49 MMTs, which would be up from a Sep estimate of 36.6 MMTs; canola production is seen at 21.25 MMTs vs 20 MMTs previously, while barely is seen at 8.9 MMTs vs 8.2 previously.
The Ukrainian Grain Association said in a statement that the country's grain and oilseed exports in the current marketing year that started in July could possibly reach 49 MMTs, though the group added that that figure would be dependent on how badly Russian strike hamper logistics and damage infrastructure. If accurate, the figure would be up from 46.7 MMTs exported in the 2024/25 marketing year.
The general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) in Russia said the country's exports of meal made from sunflower, rapeseed, and soybeans in the 2025/26 season could reach a record 4.4 MMTs, but added that the supply could be met with insufficient demand, which will possibly put producers in a difficult position. The director also mentioned a 20% export duty on raw soybeans means exports from the European part of Russia will have to be in the form of meal.
Data from a different private Russian statistics agency showed Russian ag organizations have reduced sales of of grain by nearly 16% through the first 10 months of 2025 to just 54.6 MMTs. Grain sales through October were actually up compared to last year by a little over 4%, but then fell off during the month of November.
President Trump said on Wednesday that the administration was prepared to let the current USMCA agreement expire unless Mexico and Canada agree to terms that are more aligned with the US's new reciprocal tariff framework. Trump added that the US could alternatively negotiate an entirely new deal with both countries if sufficient progress is not made under the current agreement.
Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Trump's team has been discussing whether Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could also take on the role of National Economic Council (NEC) Director, which would effectively consolidate two major economic policy positions. Kevin Hassett, who has been rumored to be Trump's pick to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman, is the current director of the NEC.
EXPORT NEWS:
100,800 metric tons of corn for delivery to Colombia during the 2025/2026 marketing year
392,500 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2025/2026 marketing year
Be safe!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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