Friday, January 2, 2025
Closing Markets: Corn: -2.75 old & -2 new.
Beans: -1.75 old & new. Wheat: -0.50.

Good evening!

Market Recap-
Happy New Year. And Happy Friday. Ag markets closed quietly lower in the first trading session of 2026 on Monday, as most market participants stayed on vacation for today's session and won't return to their desks until next week. At some point the next several days of semblance of normalcy will likely return to the markets, but like discussed going into the holidays, until more is known on South American crop sizes or biofuel policy in the US, day-to-day trade likely stays somewhat range bound and choppy.



Corn Summary-
Corn futures pushed to new lows for the week on Friday on what was another quiet, uneventful session, with the market now back near the lows made both in November and earlier last month in December. While the weather situation in Argentina is beginning to generate some conversation, the market likely doesn't see much of any reaction for at least another few weeks due to currently good moisture levels that are the result of flooding rains seen in September and October. Other than this, the bull camp just doesn't have a lot to cling to without a lower yield adjustment in the USDA's January WASDE update, which is now just five more trading sessions away.

Soybean Summary-
Soybean futures closed the week lower on Friday but were well off their lows made earlier in the session as selling pressure seemed to reach a crescendo shortly before 9:30am central time this morning and then subsided a bit as the morning went on. With the harvest slowly beginning to get rolling and there not expected to be a lot of final yield trimming from the USDA on the final US crop numbers in January, its the massive supply in the western hemisphere that likely keeps a lid on prices in the short term. Brazilian FOB offers February froward are the cheapest in the world, and the US export program is already some 40% behind last year.

Wheat Summary-
Other than Chicago futures scoring new lows on Friday, there's little to talk about pertaining to the wheat market this afternoon as values closed within spitting distance of unchanged in limited new news. There were no new developments on the war situation in the past 48 hours, and this keeps global supplies that are growing and already burdensome at the center of attention.


Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures down $0.10+/bbl.

Weather Updates-
Weekend weather across the Midwest will be mostly on the quiet side, while the northern part of the region and into the Great Lakes and northeast sees ongoing light snow potential, while the southeast looks to see a storm system that brings light/scattered rainfall to the area tonight/tomorrow and then into Sunday. Temperatures will be near average for January in the central Midwest, while being slightly warmer than normal then in the west and slightly cooler than normal in the east.
Then getting into next week, Midwest weather focus will be on another round of increasing temperatures for most of the midsection of the US, with highs in the western part of the Corn Belt again expected to be well above average as high pressure settles back in. Precip-wise, the mid-section of the region sees limited moisture potential all the way through the week next week, while the northeast and southeast continue to see regular storm activity.
Argentina continues to be the topic of conversation in regards to weather in South America going into the weekend, as a warm/dry 10-15 day outlook has gotten the attention of most ag traders amid a lack of any other real headlines. Yield loss is not an immediate concern, but the forecast will need to shift back to more favorable conditions by the middle/back half of this month or the market will want to add weather premium.
Meanwhile for Brazil, the forecast here continues to be largely non-threatening and features an ongoing good mix of sunshine and rainfall that will continue to benefit crop development. As harvest starts to crank up the next few weeks, a drier forecast will be desired through the central part of the country to aid progress, but otherwise, there continues to be little to speak of outside of small, local issues in parts of the country's far south.


Enjoy it!

Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
Image ... See MoreSee Less